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Prediction for CME (2025-01-26T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-01-26T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36643/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 (for all frames) and STEREO COR2A (starting at 2025-01-26T02:23Z when a data gap ends). Source is a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant of the Earth-facing disk, with liftoff starting around 2025-01-26T00:08Z as seen in SDO AIA 304. The curved filament occupied an oval-shaped area on the disk spanning S10-S30 and E38-E65 just prior to eruption. Filamentary material and post eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 304 at 2025-01-25T00:45Z. Post-eruptive arcades become visible in SDO AIA 171/193/131 around 2025-01-26T02:27Z. Possible arrival signature: Weak possible ICME signature characterized by a gradual increase in magnetic field components (B_t: from 5nT to 12nT), as well as an increase in density from 6p/cc to 16p/cc. There is no clear shock feature associated with this signature, as it is likely a minor CME flank impact. A similar, but more direct signature can be observed at Solar Orbiter, which was 20 degrees East of Earth at the time of impact, beginning at approx. 2025-01-29T13:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-29T20:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-30T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
CME Event ID: B1353
Start Date/Time: 2025-01-27 00:32Z 
Latitude: -30ÃÂÃÂÃÂÃÂ°
Longitude: -53ÃÂÃÂÃÂÃÂ°
Half Angle: 21ÃÂÃÂÃÂÃÂ°
Radial Velocity: 676 km/s

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Jan 28 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
...
A filament eruption near S20E50 occurred around 26/1830 UTC. There was
considerable dimming seen in the GOES-16 195 channel surrounding the
area. A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, modelling suggests
that the bulk of the plasma will pass behind Earth with fluctuations to
produce a glancing blow on 29 Jan.


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Jan 28 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to continue near nominal levels over
28 Jan. Modelling of the aforementioned filament that erupted on 26 Jan
suggests a chance for enhancements in the solar wind environment late on
28 Jan to early on 29 Jan. A return to or continuation of nominal levels
is expected 30 Jan.


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Jan 29 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

â¦

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters have remained enhanced throughout the period. This
may be due to the arrival of the filament eruption that occurred 26 Jan
that was projected to arrive late 28 Jan into 29 Jan. The total field
(Bt) was between 8-10 nT with an extended period of the Bz component
being deflected southward between roughly 28/0800 through 28/1800 UTC,
dropping as low as -9 nT. Solar wind speeds remained low between
300-350 km/s. The phi angle was mostly negative (towards the Sun) prior
to 28/0900 UTC and became highly variable thereafter.

â¦
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain below the G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm thresholds 29-31 Jan. However, with two weak passing
blows expected and multiple transients intermixed from small eruptions
from the disk, confidence is low over the coming days. The field will
likely be unsettled (Kp=3) with a slight chance for active (Kp=4)
conditions. Confidence remains especially low for the second passing
blow associated with the CME described in the Solar Activity section.
Modelling suggests an arrival on 31 Jan, but this may be overrun by the
high speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole that is
expected to arrive on 01 Feb.

Lead Time: 58.23 hour(s)
Difference: -21.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-01-27T10:29Z

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